THE BOBBY GOALS BOOST METHOD
Introduction
Congratulations on purchasing the Bobby Goals Boost Method.
This system has given amazing results over a long period of time and wee will show you how to potentially make a second living from football gambling on the exchange markets.
As with the Bobby Goals Bullet Method we will be mixing things with this system and some content will be in writing and others will be on video.
Our first video will be about laying the foundations which is important to us all. We went into this in depth with the Bullet method.
Before you watch the video, I do apologise as I can talk for ever. We talk about bankroll management, psychology and value. It’s a long video and if you are really pressed for time, the main points are working out what your gambling bankroll is, writing off your bankroll (I know this sounds crazy), betting up to a maximum of 5% of your total bankroll for each trade and getting value. I think it’s worth watching but the team tell me it’s at a fairly slow pace. That may not work for some but it’s important to lay the foundations to this system.
BOBBY GOALS BOOST
The Bobby Goals Boost method is on the goals market of football matches. In particular it’s on the over 1.5 goals market.
The over 1.5 goals market is one where we have capitalised on for a while and we have a strategy to extract the maximum value and also pick the matches where we have an over 80% strike rate. 80% strike rate is a fairly bad day for us and in reality it’s more like 85%. When you see the odds we get then you will know that 80% is a good thing.
Around 77% of matches finish over 1.5 goals. This is a fact. So when we can get that figure at 85% we are capitalising on the situation.
So we have two parts of this system. Firstly, the selection process which happens pre-match. Secondly how we make money by extracting value!
BOBBY GOALS BOOST SELECTION PROCESS
We can use the Bobby Goals Boost on nearly any match. To narrow down our qualifiers, we want to look at the last five matches for the home team and away team in the competition that the match is taking place. For example, Vitoria v Nacional in the Portuguese League. We will look at Vitoria’s last 5 home games in the Portuguese League and Nacional’s last give away games in the Portuguese League. We prefer to use Soccerway.com.
With Soccerway.com you can filter by competition and home/away. See the photo below.
So we have filtered and it should look like this. So now we look at the last five Vitoria home games. We can see they’ve played in four out of their last five matches where there’s been over 1.5 goals. Nacional have lost their last five games and four out of their last five matches they have played in, there has been over 1.5 goals.
To be a qualifier for the Bobby Goals Boost, both teams have to play in at least FOUR matches where there’s been over 1.5 goals.
So this match is a qualifier. We also can add the amount of goals in matches as well as a further qualifier. For example, if there’s 100 qualifiers on a Saturday then we want to chose the juiciest and most likely and a quick way to do this is count the amount of goals in the matches. Therefore Vitoria = 13 goals and Nacional = 19, which makes a total of 32 which is quite high. The strike rate over 30 goals is high but sadly this is mostly reflected in the odds.
Let’s look at a few more examples, so that you can get the gist.
Another easy qualifier above. Both Liverpool and Huddersfield have at least 4 of their last 5 home/away respective games have finished over 1.5 goals. Additionally the total number of goals is 36 goals. Another great qualifier. Let’s do one more for luck. My old professor once told me to read things three times to let it truly sink in so let’s do three examples.
There will be many qualifiers in the day and it’s good to count the goals in the 10 respective games. Look out for odd results. For example, 4 1-1s and 1 10-0 doesn’t give a true reflection of stats.
Extracting maximum value - Bobby Goals value extractor
We have done the pre game research and we are confident that there will be goals in the match. However, we are using stats widely available and the whole world is expecting goals.
What now? Do we simply lump on betting style on over 1.5 goals for a match at odds of 1-4 or 1-5?
There are a few options we can use here. We can be flexible. But one thing we are definitely going to do is divide our stake. We are not lumping on with our full stake. It makes no sense and we won’t get value.
So we will divide our stake in either of two ways. Let’s use an example of £2000 bankroll. Each trade should be 5% maximum. Therefore, our max bet would be £100. We can then divide that stake two ways. Firstly, 4 x £25 or 3 x £33.33. Pretty self explanatory.
Now we have a few strategies to chose from. We can either take the pre match odds – look at example below – Vitoria v Nacional pre kick off odds are 1.26 or we can wait.
If we decide that we want to get involved pre match then it’s simple. We bet 25% of our stake at the starting price. For example, 1.26 and then we order our other 3 trades at 25 ticks higher.
For example, 1.51 at £25 1.76 at £25 and 2.02 at £25
Or we can do it like this. We have one third of the stake to start with and then we bet 33% of our stake at 33 ticks higher than our entry trade and then place another order for the remainder of our stake at 33 ticks higher. For example –
£33 at 1.26
£33 at 1.59
£33 at 1.92
There are pros and cons to this method. You will have to go with what works best for you.
Another way to extract value is to place orders in the market. We don’t take the kick off price, but we order in the market and hope for a slow start. For example, see below. We look at an entry point of 1.4 and split stake as mentioned already. See example below.
Again, there are pros and cons to these methods.
What happened in the Vitoria v Nacional match? An early goal.
So, in this instance
Example a 4x 25% pre kick off price – only one part matched – £25 at 1.26 – return £31.50 – Total profit £6.50
Example b 3x 33% pre kick off price – only one part matched – £33 at 1.26 – return £41.58 – Total profit £8.58
Example c 4x 25% – wait until odds reach 1.4 – no parts matched – Total profit £0 Total loss £0
Example d 3x 33% – wait until odds reach 1.4 – no parts matched – Total profit £0 Total loss £0
Another good example is from the match below. Here we see another qualifier. Napoli v Cagliari. In this match, the first goal was scored in the 65th minute and the match finished over 1.5 goals.
Therefore, let’s run the four examples above again.
Example a £25 at 1.14 £25 at 1.39 £25 at 1.64 £25 at 1.89 – profit £3.50, £9.75, £16, £22.50 – total profit £51.75
Example b £33 at 1.14 £33 at 1.47 £33 at 1.80 – profit £4.62, £15.51, £26.40 – total profit £46.53
Example c £25 at 1.4, £25 at 1.65, £25 at 1.9 and £25 at 2.16 – profit at £10, £16.25, £22.50, £29.00 – total profit £77.75
Example d £33 at 1.4 £33 at 1.77 £33 at 2.10 – profit at £13.20, £25.41, £36.30 – total profit £74.91
Here you can see that there’s quite a difference between the examples.
In this instance, it’s clear that we are better off using the example below- example c system to extract the most profit. However, this won’t catch early goals. Pros and cons of all systems.
ENTRY AND EXIT POINTS
ENTRY POINT
Of course, you do not have to use any of the systems above. You can monitor matches and wait for half time to get even more value if the match is 0-0 and it’s a good qualifier or get involved when the match warms up late first half or early second half. You need to have a good reason why you are entering the trade. If you are watching the match and it’s been drab for 25 minutes then you could alter the price of entry to try and extract more value. You can be flexible using this system. You can cancel orders and then place them at greater odds when the match warms up. Don’t get greedy but look to extract as much value as you can. If the match started at 1.14 then the market believed strongly that there would be goals. If you are sitting on a lot of trades above 2 and the match has warmed up then it’s jackpot time.
EXIT POINT
More decisions for you.
a) Cash out for a profit when first goal scored. Simple one for those learning.
b) partial cash out for greenage
c) let it roll, hope with understanding that there will be a second goal from your match reading skills
d) if no goal and the match is dead with no signs of improving, cash out for a loss
Rookie mistakes
Letting it all run, being passive/lazy.
If a match is dead as a dodo with no signs of improving and you are looking at getting the next part of your bet matched, then cancel it, re-adjust the odds. Don’t sit there watching your trades get zero value. Act!
Pretending the match is hot when it’s not.
This is a common mistake. “This game is really hotting up now”. “a goal is more than likely to happen”. But in reality, neither team has had a shot on target for the last 20 minutes, the defence are on top and look in control. The pace is fast, but there’s been half chances, long shots and not much else. I look for shots on target, dangerous free kicks, prolonged leaks in defence. I say prolonged because if there’s a counter attack and the defence only had 2 centre backs and one centre mid covering for the wing backs, then that is a leak in defence. If that only happens once because the manager instructed the team to take it easy after nearly being caught out, then it’s a one off. If it happens all of the time then a goal is much more likely.
Some people get involved after the striker hits row Z with an easy chance thinking the game has livened up. To me, that’s a signal to hold fire!
BOBBY GOALS BOOST SYSTEMS WITHIN THE SYSTEM
The Watcher
Watching the matches is probably the place that most newbies want to start. With the Watcher you get all of the visual clues you need to have. You can see with you own eyes, the pace of the game, whether it’s end to end, whether the defences are on top, if there is a parked bus, if legs are tired, if someone looks like they are carrying an injury and loads more. Watching the game offers us the most amount of data possible with visual clues. For example, there’s no stats on whether legs are tired or teams are hanging on, but it’s something you can clearly see with your own eyes. There’s no stats on whether the star player’s body language looks all wrong but again you can see for yourself if you are watching the game live.
For our system, we are looking at three or four unmatched bets. Let’s say we have put our pre game bet on and we have three more lined up as in the example above. If for example, it looks like a dry game, you can cancel or change the odds of the trades you have ordered. It’s all about extracting the most amount of value. Sometimes there is no point in getting that first ordered trade matched if the game is as dead as a dodo. We have to be switched on with the Watcher. We have to read the game and make the right decisions. This system requires the most thought but it also offers the most profit and enhances your match reading skills which are key to making money trading on football. We’d recommend that most of your trades to start with are using the Watcher.
The Tracker
This is a fantastic system for those who are able to track more than one match at a time. This is for those that can’t get access to live streams but who want to take advantage of the Bobby Goals Boost. Here we merely track the qualifiers that we feel are worth having a punt on.
We do this by tracking stats on a website called sofa score or any site of your choice that has RELIABLE stats. I don’t like to use a bookmakers or Betfair’s stats. Sofa score works best for us. All we have to do is keep track of the matches where we are involved in. There are others but it’s your choice.
Here is an example from a qualifier last night. Atalanta v Udinese. The main stat we are interested in here is shots on target. We can see Alalanta have had 3 shots on target and Udinese have 1 shot on target. Shots off target don’t really interest us, unless there are a lot and no shots on target. In that case, we assume (always slightly dodgy territory – and this is why the Watcher is superior) that the forward line are off form or tired. Corner kicks, not that relevant but we can see there has been lots in the first half. No big chances, no hit woodwork. A few shots inside the box and a few keeper saves. No counter attacks.
The half time result was 0-0! All bets matched. What would you do at this stage? In our opinion, this game is showing good signs of being a winner and we are more than happy to be involved. 4 shots on target in the first half usually means 1 goals or maybe more has been scored. If there were zero shots on target, this would be on my radar of cutting losses and protecting our bankroll. However, this particular example, we are more than happy with.
Final score was 2-0
Two late goals were scored. However, the point you have to take home here is that this game had been showing signs of goals coming. If there had been 0 shots on target at half time or just 1 and that continued throughout the match until the 70th minute with no signs of picking up, then we would cash out and protect our bankroll and move on to the next match. No drama, no emotions, we move on. This game had more shots on target in the second half and Juan Musso was keeping Udinese in the game. We could see from the stats that things were lively so we stayed in and collected a healthy profit.
In short – more shots on target the better. Less shots on target – you monitor very closely and maybe even look to cash out on 70 if no goals are scored or if a goal is scored then straight after for a slight profit.
In the next example, we have a weak qualifier, Valarenga IF v Odds BK. Sure, the match qualifies as there have been four matches over 1.5 goals BUT just 24 goals in those respective 10 matches. Remember mid 30s was where we were focusing on before. Now we are scraping around with the bottom of the pile of qualifiers. 24 is dodgy territory but if you do the pre game research and see how the matches are then it gives you more info to make the decision. For example, Valarenga’s last home match had 5 goals. So then we are looking at 19 goals in 9 matches. We were not involved with this game but it’s important you see this match in two ways. Firstly, a weak qualifier and secondly, more importantly how to track.
You can see the alarm bells ringing already with this match. Just one shot on target. It looks dull from the stats. This is one game I would be thinking about pulling the plug on. You have to use your judgement on matches like this. I really like to see how things pan out up until the 70th minute. Again, this is where the watcher comes in handy as you can see body language, you can see what’s going on. From these stats we can see it’s dry as anything but we only have limited clues. However, there’s really nothing going on in this match.
It was goalless and there were only a few shots on target in the second half. This is as sure a cash out after 70 minutes or even well before. The match is dry. We are living in hope of a drastic change to the match. The goalkeepers are pretty much spectators in this game. We are sure this is a loser. We act accordingly.
There was a goal in the 93rd minute but we thought this would be a good example of matches to avoid and qualifiers that need decisive action based upon the stats you are tracking.
The Sleeper
As I’ve always said, the Watcher is the best system hands down. But what about matches that qualify and the kick off is at Midnight or 1:00 or 2:00 or any time in the wee hours? Or what about matches where I am not around, I can’t watch, I can’t track, I’m stuck at Ikea with the other half (poor you) but don’t want to miss out on the qualifier.
Don’t you worry. We have you covered. In these situations, we simply do as above. We put our four bets lined up or we match the first one if the price is right and we have three orders at the correct price.
Then we do absolutely nothing! Well, that’s our involvement with the trade finished. We simply sleep, go to Ikea, go to a football match or whatever you need to do and check at a later time whether it’s won or not.
I absolutely love the Sleeper even though it’s arguably the worst of all the systems. But it does have some benefits. Firstly, you don’t make the decisions. If for example, the match is dry as a bone and suddenly there are two freak goals in injury time then we win in a situation where we would never have won using the Watcher and the Tracker. Also, you can bet on many games at once. I’ve done this many times on Saturday afternoons when there are thousands of games and hundreds of qualifiers. But bare in mind, you have to have your pre match selections absolutely nailed on to do this. Lots of pre game research. Don’t go scatter gun with this approach.
It is great waking up richer! Who doesn’t want that?
There are obvious flaws in the system. For example, those 0-0 dry matches at 70 minutes mostly turn into 0-1 1-0 or finish 0-0 which is not good for us. When we have no control over these things it’s detrimental. So use this sparingly. Don’t shove your whole bankroll on any 20 qualifiers on a Saturday afternoon and hope for the best. Chances are you will do well but variance is real and also you won’t increase your match reading/tracking skills using this method.
Use with care!
That is just about it for the Bobby Goals Boost. We do have a spreadsheet that we use for this system which you might be interested in. This means that you don’t have to work out which matches are qualifiers. It takes us a lot of time to produce the spreadsheets but we are happy to give you one free spreadsheet to start you off. Simply give us 24 hours notice and the leagues or cups you want us to analyse and we’ll send you a bespoke spreadsheet with the qualifiers, the number of goals scored in matches, relevant form and the all important total goals so you can see which qualifiers should be better. Drop us an email at goalsbobby@gmail.com and we’ll send your free spreadsheet.