Machine Learning football Accas

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EURO 2024

Spain v France

Yet another 3 way coin flip. It’s so tight to call. Spain are the slight favourites but France look very difficult to beat. Can we lay Spain at odds of 2.8. No. So what are our options?Back France? 3.25 or back the draw at 2.92. Of the 3 options, backing France is probably the most favourable.  Spain are very good on the counter attack but I can’t see France as a team that is easily countered due to their rather dull style. It should be a fascinating match and there are some absolute quality players on show. Rodri, Kante, Mbappe, Williams, Yamal, Griezman. 

Another area I was looking at is the over markets. The world is expecting a tight, dull semi final and indeed, the 0-0 is very short.  But really there is nothing that looks very wrong on the overs market. It was explotable back in the day as the older Bobby Goals crew well know! However, there just isn’t much value there in this match. 

Not betting is probably the sensible strategy for this match but we firmly believe it is a real pickem 33/33/33 type match. So laying Spain or Backing the draw or France are the only options. 

We’ll go with France frustrating Spain and get another lucky goal, similar to the Belgium game. 

Good luck! 

England v Switzerland

Lay England at 2.3.  I really don’t know what to make of England. They seem like a mixed bag. At their best, odds of 2.3 look way too large. At their worst, odds of 2.3 look like the best lay of all time. Switzerland look like a high intensity team and resemble a top flight league team. For those brave enough, Switzerland at 4.2 look very tempting but it really depends on what England show up. The safe route is to lay England.  The super safe route is to lay England then watch and match read. If England look lively then maybe cash out. If it’s more of the same then watch the profit grow. 

Netherlands v Turkey

Lay Netherlands at 1.64.  Last time out we underestimated Netherlands. They looked impressive. We’ve made a few quid on Turkey this tournament. No-one seems to rate them but they have impressed me. Backing them at 6.6 is an option I quite like but perhaps the best play is to lay Netherlands at 1.64.  Let’s hope we can add to the profit today.  

Spain v Germany

Two quarter finals today, starting with Spain v Germany. Similar to the Italy v Switzerland game that we ranked as a 3 way coin flip. Spain are available to lay at 2.86 which isn’t great but we think that is the play.  The edge isn’t fantastic so it’s not as appealing as the Italy game. But it looks an ok bet

Portugal v France

We are a bit more enthusiastic about laying France at 2.5.  We got unlucky in the France v Belgium game. France have been very dull under Deschamps and whilst they are hard to beat and probably favourites to win the tournament, it’s hard to get excited about backing them at that price. That’s it for today. We’ll have more tomorrow and let’s hope we see two cracking matches today. 

Romania v Netherlands

Apologies for the lateness. Lay Netherlands at 1.45

Austria v Turkey

We were a scruffy goal away from cashing in yesterday with France. But we’ve had luck go our way also so no tears from us. We are laying Austria at 1.99 in tonight’s match. Once again, apologies for the late tip on the 5pm match. Things are very busy at the minute. 

Laying England at 1.46 looked very good for most of the match yesterday. Slovakia looked the better team for most of the first half. Once again England looked leggy, stiff, uninspiring and disjointed. Bellingham looked like a very good candidate to get a red card at one point. He clearly doesn’t like how the team plays. I don’t think many football fans do either. But it’s another win for us. I think that’s 8 out of 10 now? But who’s counting. Two more games today but so far we are only getting involved with the 5pm match.

France v Belgium

Laying France here at 1.99. Like England, they looked very dull and uninspiring despite the talent they have. Belgium were a lot of people’s dark horses for the tournament, but they have been woeful so far. Doku has been very flat despite being one of the star players who hasn’t played a much as the rest. De Bruyne is looking very sharp but the rest look quite middle of the road players.  In fact sometimes their defence looks very ordinary. It is a bit of a coin flip this one. France win vs Belgium win and draw.  We can’t hope that Belgium actually show up this time, despite rarely showing up ever in tournaments. Backing the draw could work, but laying France just shades of odds on looks like the best play.  It’s a shame that this isn’t the mouth watering clash it looks like on paper. In reality so far it’s two teams who play quite dull football with glimpses of brilliance. Let’s hope it’s a cracker and we get another win. 

One winner and one loser yesterday. VAR is getting ridiculous these days. Toe nail offside and a hand ball that never used to be a handball but is now.  We move on. We thought that Italy v Switzerland was a “3 way coin flip”. We got that very wrong, but not as wrong as the bookies! I don’t like laying odds against but that was a no brainer. Italy were woeful but Switzerland looked very good.  

England v Slovakia

Lay England at 1.46 (as I’m typing the price has drifted out to 1.48). Backing England at 1.45 is not a very attractive position. Risk £100 to win £45.08 on a team that has looked very leggy, uninspiring and disjointed. Not for me at all. Happy to lay at that price. However, I want to see how England play. If it is more of the same backwards, sideways, slow, dull style then the 1.46 could drift enough to take a reasonable green in play. If England play with a bit more pace in their passes and movement then it may be worth cashing out and taking whatever profit you can. Very tricky one and it heavily reliant on match reading capabilities. 

I was looking at laying over 1.5 goals but the current odds of 1.4 seem about right. You can lay over 0.5 goals at 1.1. Neither take my eye but if you really think it’ll be more of the same from England then you may want to get involved. 

We love late winners. Turkey bring home the bacon. Belgium looked awful so that was a good lay. Slovakia vs Romania was a good price to lay for the draw and cashing out was the right answer. Another very good day. Let’s see if we can go 8 out of 9 today!  

Italy v Switzerland

Tricky. I’m laying Italy at 2.66. I see this as a three way coin flip between the draw, and either teams winning. There could be a case to back Switzerland at 3.5. Will this be a take no risks sort of game that ends up 0-0 and reliant on extra time and penalties? I don’t know but laying Italy is the one that makes more sense.  

Germany v Denmark

 Lay Germany at 1.68.  I have them favourites to win but that price seems very very skinny.  Well we got the lay Belgium right but the lay the draw wasn’t successful (unless you cashed out as per notes below).  We are now 5 wins 1 losses.  Let’s see if we can got 6 out of 7 tonight.  

CZECH REPUBLIC vs TURKEY

Another tricky one. Czech Repulic look too skinny but perhaps not enough to lay them. Let’s go with Turkey at 3.1 

We are on a roll. 100% record so far in the Euros. We have two more for the 5pm GMT kick offs. Can we make it 6 out of 6? Let’s hope so. Keep an eye on this page at half time. We may post some inplay tips.  

UKRAINE vs BELGIUM

Lay Belgium around 1.65.  Tricky one but worth laying at that price.  

UKRAINE vs BELGIUM Inplay update

Belgium are now just over even money. They’ve had one big chance in a fairly even game. It may well be worth cashing out for a small profit as I expect Belgium will be wanting to get that win to top the group. I don’t hate letting it roll but profit is profit.  

SLOVAKIA vs ROMANIA

The odds for the draw have plummeted to around 2.26.  More than happy to lay the draw at that price. If you are a cautious type, have a look at the match inplay. 

SLOVAKIA vs ROMANIA Inplay update

Slovakia have scored. Cashing out for a profit, letting it roll or setting up a no loss bet are all good options. 

We have had some crackers lately.  We got a bit lucky with the Italy vs Croatia draw, but the main bet of laying Italy came in pretty easy. The price dropped a little in the first half. Laying Spain v Albania over 1.5 goals was another cracker.  3 out of 3.  We’ll take that.  

NETHERLANDS v AUSTRIA

We are laying Netherlands at around 2.1 odds this evening.  Let’s hope we can make it 4 out of 4. 

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This is how powerful the Boominator system can be! We posted the following free tips in October 2018 for a whole month.  We had ups and downs but overall a very healthy profit.  That is the power of Boominator (which is included in Valuerator)

30 October

12:55 Catterick	Carlovian 7-2
4:00 Chepstow	Gaelic Flow 7-2
4:45 Wolverhampton	Buckland Boy 11-4
7:45 Wolverhampton	Reeth 2-1

29 October

3:10 Wexford	Peregrine Run 6-5
3:45 Wexford	Mind's Eye 5-4
1:10 Galway	Commodus 11-4
1:45 Galway	Best not Argue 10-3
2:55 Galway	Tuamhain 9-2
4:35 Galway	Aa Bee See 7-2

28 October

3:25 Galway

High Sparrow 5-1

27 October

1:55 Leopardstown	Turnberry Isle 100-30
3:40 Leopardstown	Silverkode 3-1
2:55 Doncaster	Finniston Farm 7-2
4:05 Doncaster	Magna Grecia 6-4
4:35 Doncaster	Ripp Orf 9-2
4:55 Cheltenham	Monbeg Legend 6-4
7:45 Kempton	Awalii 9-2

26 October

1:50 Doncaster	Ambling 6-4
3:00 Doncaster	Forest of Dean 9-4
3:35 Doncaster	Teruntum Star 4-1
3:45 Cheltenham	Lil Rockerfella Evs
7:45 Kempton	Show of Strength 4-1
9:15 Kempton	Arlecchino's Arc 4-1
6:30 Dundalk	Festina Plente 4-1
7:00 Dundalk	Jupiter Road 3-1
8:00 Dundalk	Could it be Love 11-4
9:00 Dundalk	Pass the Ball 9-2

25 October

3:05 Carlisle	Cause Toujours 11-4
4:10 Carlisle	Zabeel Star 8-11
2:05 Thurles	Syrena 9-4
3:15 Thurles	Madrid 15-8
5:25 Thurles	Los Alamos 5-4
4:35 Southwell	Royal Ruby 6-4
8:45 Chelmsford	Keltie 10-11

24 October

3:10 Newmarket	Travel On 2-1
1:35 Navan	Western Frontier 11-8
2:05 Navan	Cruella Dovil 4-1
3:15 Navan	Miss Power 5-2
4:25 Navan	Tide of Time 6-1
2:50 Fontwell	Canyon City 2-1
1:50 Worcester	Marienstar 6-4
3:00 Worcester	Baden 3-1
8:00 Chelsmford	Papa Delta 3-1
5:15 Newcastle	Loud and Clear 7-2
7:45 Newcastle	Ideological 6-4
8:45 Newcastle	Ring Dancer 4-1

23 October

3:30 Yarmouth	Esprit De Baileys 6-1
2:15 Gowran Park	Empire State 6/4
3:15 Gowran Park	Centrifolia 7/2
3:45 Gowran Park	Solomons Seal 6/1
4:15 Gowran Park	Best Not Argue 4/1
4:40 Newcastle	Good Man 3/1
5:45 Newcastle	Pure Shores 2/1
7:10 Kempton	Evasive Power 15/8

22 October

2:10 Windsor	Swiss Pride 7-4
5:40 Kempton	Broughton Excels 5-2
6:40 Kempton	Imperial Charm 13-8
7:10 Kempton	Lady Lawyer 11-4

21 October

1:35 Naas	San Andreas 5-4
2:35 Naas	Archaeology 5-1
5:20 Naas	Curly 7-2
2:55 Cork	Plan of Attack 7-2
4:35 Cork	Judgement Day 5-4
3:40 Kempton	Casablanca Mix 15-8
4:10 Kempton	Verdana Blue 4-5

20 October

4:30 Ascot	Raising Sand 11-2
3:05 Leopardstown	No needs never 7-4
5:25 Leopardstown	Perfect Tapatinon 7-2
4:05 Catterick	Nibras Galaxy 5-1
5:45 Stratford	Canford Thompson 7-4
5:40 Wolverhampton	Motajaasid 10-11
9:15 Wolverhampton	Arrowzone 2-1

19 October

2:30 Haydock	Praxidice 6-5
3:35 Haydock	Sod's Law 11-4
4:40 Haydock	New Graduate 11-8
5:15 Haydock	Lincoln Park 5-2
2:35 Fakenham	Canyon City 2-1
5:10 Newcastle	Pammi 7-2
6:15 Newcastle	Boston George 6-4
6:00 Dundalk	Eagle Song 2-1
6:30 Dundalk	King's Field 5-2
8:00 Dundalk	Lost Treasure 11-4
9:00 Dundalk	Arthurian Fame 11-4

18 October

5:15 Brighton	Sugar Plum Fairy 4-1
3:10 Tramore	Monition 5-2
3:40 Tramore	Moonball 4-6
1:40 Carlisle	Zabeel Star 5-1
8:30 Wolverhampton	Allux Boy 4-1

17 October

2:00 Nottingham	Mannaal 5-2
2:05 Punchestown	Batts Rock Evs
2:45 Wetherby	Lough Derg Spirit 8/11
6:45 Newcastle	Drogon 6-5

16 October

3:05 Leicester	Shady McCoy 11-4
2:05 Punchestown	Elysian Plains 2-1
2:35 Punchestown	Don't touch it 7-4
2:45 Huntingdon	Before Midnight 8-11
4:50 Huntingdon	Hepijeu 5-2
4:30 Hereford	Atlanta Breeze 6-4
6:45 Kempton	Isaan Queen 3-1

15 October

4:50 Musselburgh

Pavers Pride 9-4

14 October

1:35 Navan	Western Frontier 10-11
2:05 Navan	Never No More 11-8
2:40 Navan	Lost Treasure 6-4
3:50 Navan	Peach Tree 5-2
4:10 Limerick	Tombstone 6-5
5:20 Limerick	Boot Camp 2-1

13 October

1:05 Limerick	I am Superman 7-4
1:35 Limerick	Could Be King 9-4
2:45 Limerick	The King 9-4
1:50 Newmarket	Sydney Opera House 13-8
4:50 Newmarket	Different League 11-4
1:55 Chepstow	Pym 7-4
4:25 York	Jonah Jones 2-1

11 October

5:15 Ayr	Cubomania 13-8
3:20 Bangor	Mill Quest 5-4
3:50 Bangor	Global Jackpot 11-10
4:25 Bangor	Jaunty Thor 9-4
6:15 Chelmsford	Fintas 2-1

10 October

2:30 nottingham	Alnadir 2-1
2:05 cork	Coral Beach 5-2
4:05 Cork	King's Field 7-4
5:05 Cork	Silverkode 5-4
2:10 Ludlow	Shuhood 4-6
2:40 Ludlow	Chilli Filli 7-4

9 October

1:30 Catterick

Summer Blossom 15-8

8 October

4:35 Windsor	Motajaasid 11-4
2:10 Tipperary	Monbeg Worldwide 7-4
6:45 Kempton	Cool Reflection 13-8
7:15 Kempton	Cristal Spirit 2-1

7 October

1:40 Tipperary	South Pacific 7-4
2:00 Uttoxeter	Third Estate 5-2
4:05 Uttoxeter	Lil Rockerfeller EVS

6 October

2:25 Ascot	First Eleven 11/10

5 October

2:30 Gowran Park	Jack Dillinger 11-8
2:50 Hexham	Isle of Destiny 9-4
3:25 Hexham	Hillary view 10-11
4:35 Hexham	Jaunty Thor 8-11
5:10 Hexham	Equus Pandora 7-4
8:45 Wolverhampton	Hard Taskmaster Evs
6:00 Dundalk	Never No More 4-5
7:30 Dundalk	Old Glory 5-6

4 October

2:55 Lingfield	Gaudi Evs
5:35 Lingfield	Prominna 4-1
3:10 Clonmel	Kuiper Belt 9-4
3:50 Warwick	Play the Ace 3-1
8:15 Chelmsford	Spiced 2-1

3 October

2:00 Nottingham	Ambling 6-4 flop
2:30 Nottingham	Spanish Aria 5-2 flop
5:15 Nottingham	Captain Lars 9-4 flop
3:40 Cork	Snowflakes 2-1 WON 9-4

2 October

455Ayr

Daawy 15/8 WON

245Naas

San Andreas 3/1 flop

535Naas

Fightfortheroses 6/4 WON

645Kempton

Anycity 11/4 flop

1 October

3:35 Catterick

Dr Doro 3.9 WON

Race Title	Race Class	Age/Handicap Rating	Time	Course	Distance	No	Horse Name	Form	Odds	Long Term Average
Beep Doctors Handicap Hurdle	(Class 4)	(4yo+ 0-120)	2:00	Cartmel	2m6f31y	7	Solly Attwell	0273-1	6.5	-168	bet365 Handicap Chase (GBB Race)	(Class 2)	(5yo+)	2:25	Uttoxeter	1m7f214y	2	Al Zaraqaan	1143-1	6.5	-133	Burlington Stone Handicap Hurdle	(Class 5)	(4yo+ 0-105)	2:35	Cartmel	3m1f83y	2	Lets Do This	02608-	10	-177	Burlington Stone Handicap Hurdle	(Class 5)	(4yo+ 0-105)	2:35	Cartmel	3m1f83y	5	Pateen	634-31	5	-146	Get Raceday Ready Handicap (Rider Restricted Race)	(Class 6)	(3yo+ 0-55)	3:20	Wolverhampton (AW)	1m1f104y	1	High Court Judge	963272	5	-111	Oakmere Homes Handicap Chase (GBB Race)	(Class 2)	(5yo+)	3:45	Cartmel	2m5f34y	10	Charlie Uberalles	P3P6-2	3.75	-179	Best Odds Guaranteed At bet365 Handicap Hurdle	(Class 4)	(4yo+ 0-110)	4:10	Uttoxeter	2m3f207y	11	Clararose	8P2-12	4.5	-111	Free Digital Racecard At raceday-ready.com Classified Stakes (Rider Restricted Race)	(Class 6)	(3yo+ 0-50)	4:30	Wolverhampton (AW)	7f36y	1	Mintana	-44862	4.33333	-111	Holker Hall Handicap Chase	(Class 5)	(5yo+ 0-100)	4:55	Cartmel	3m1f107y	5	Lights Are Green	42-P44	5.5	-147	Holker Hall Handicap Chase	(Class 5)	(5yo+ 0-100)	4:55	Cartmel	3m1f107y	10	Calahill	40/315	8.5	-156